What Is the Probability That Trump's Gaza Strip Plan Will Work?

Hamas's conditional acceptance toward the US president's Gaza deal on Friday was welcomed internationally and is the nearest the two warring sides have come over the past 24 months to ending the conflict within the Gaza Strip.

How Close Is a Deal?

The Palestinian faction's partial acceptance of the US proposal is the closest delegates have got over the last several months to a comprehensive termination to the war inside the Gaza Strip. Nevertheless, they are still far off from an agreement.

Trump's multi-point plan to stop the conflict specifies that the group release all hostages within 72 hours, give up control to a transnational body led by the US president, and lay down its weapons. As compensation, Israeli forces would gradually pull back its troops from Gaza and return more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners.

The deal would also bring a boost of relief supplies into Gaza, some areas of which are experiencing starvation, and reconstruction funds to Gaza, which has been almost entirely decimated.

The organization only agreed to three points: the release of every captive, the surrendering of control and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip. The group declared the remaining parts of the agreement should be discussed together with additional Palestinian factions, as it is part of a joint national approach.

Effectively, this means the group seeks additional talks regarding the more difficult aspects of the US plan, particularly the demand for its disarmament, and a clear timetable on Israel’s withdrawal.

Where and When Will Talks Happen?

Representatives have traveled to the Egyptian capital to finalize details to narrow the differences between the two sides.

Discussions will start tomorrow and it is anticipated to produce conclusions over the next several days, be they successful or not.

Trump shared a picture of a chart of Gaza last Saturday evening that showed the boundary to which Israeli troops ought to pull back and said that if Hamas agreed to it, the truce would start right away. The US president is keen to stop the conflict as it comes to its two year mark and prior to the Nobel prize committee announces who receives the Nobel Peace Prize on 10 October, which is an extensively reported obsession of his.

The Israeli prime minister said a deal to bring Israeli hostages back home should preferably take place in the coming days.

Which Differences Remain?

The two sides have hedged their positions heading into the talks.

The group has repeatedly refused to give up its weapons during previous talks. It has given no word on if its position has changed regarding this issue, even as it broadly accepts to the US proposal, with conditions. Trump and Israel have emphasized that there exists little wiggle room regarding the disarmament demand and are resolved to pin Hamas down through firm wording in any agreement moving forward.

The militant faction additionally stated it accepted surrendering authority over Gaza to an expert-led governing force, as specified by the Trump plan. But, in its announcement, Hamas clarified it would agree to a Palestinian technocratic governing body, not the international body that Trump laid out in its plan.

Israel has also tried to keep the issue regarding its military pullout ambiguous. Just hours following the announcement of Trump’s plan during a shared media briefing in the US capital recently, the prime minister published a video reassuring the Israeli public that troops would remain across much of Gaza.

On Saturday night, Netanyahu again repeated that forces would remain inside Gaza, saying that captives would be released while the Israeli military would remain within Gaza's interior.

Netanyahu’s position seemingly stands against the requirement in the US proposal that Israeli troops fully withdraw from Gaza. The group will seek reassurances that Israeli forces will fully withdraw and that should the group gives up its weapons, Israeli troops will not return to the strip.

Mediators must bridge these gaps, securing clear, strict language on disarmament from the group. They will also have to show to Hamas that the Israeli government will truly withdraw from Gaza and that there will be international guarantees that will compel the Israeli state to comply to the terms of the deal.

The disagreements could be reconciled, and the United States will certainly pressure the two sides to reach a deal. Nevertheless, the talks have come near to a deal previously suddenly collapsing multiple times over the last 24 months, leaving both parties cautious of celebrating prior to a formal agreement.

James Beck
James Beck

Certified fitness coach and nutritionist passionate about helping others lead healthier lives through sustainable practices.